Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.107063 0.120538 0.135086 0.151967 0.171023 0.191880 0.216453
2025-12-14 0.081773 0.098627 0.118133 0.142401 0.171822 0.206388 0.250157
2025-12-21 0.064303 0.082547 0.105036 0.134851 0.173435 0.221808 0.287267
2025-12-28 0.053774 0.073179 0.098555 0.134272 0.183427 0.248964 0.343432
2026-01-04 0.044323 0.063702 0.090486 0.130366 0.188531 0.270729 0.396535
2026-01-11 0.037594 0.056887 0.084984 0.129110 0.197121 0.298718 0.463403
2026-01-18 0.032624 0.051829 0.081217 0.129768 0.208638 0.332867 0.545628
2026-01-25 0.027095 0.045036 0.073782 0.123569 0.208521 0.349142 0.602768
2026-02-01 0.022460 0.038948 0.066535 0.116489 0.205774 0.360683 0.654154
2026-02-08 0.019168 0.034608 0.061526 0.112387 0.207422 0.379914 0.722526
2026-02-15 0.016384 0.030731 0.056734 0.107885 0.207582 0.396473 0.788987
2026-02-22 0.014821 0.028848 0.055254 0.109280 0.219019 0.435871 0.906946
2026-03-01 0.012729 0.025694 0.051026 0.104903 0.218891 0.453717 0.986809
2026-03-08 0.011180 0.023378 0.048092 0.102678 0.222857 0.480740 1.092054
2026-03-15 0.009863 0.021337 0.045409 0.100553 0.226723 0.508368 1.204659
2026-03-22 0.009089 0.020332 0.044742 0.102710 0.240492 0.560331 1.384758
2026-03-29 0.008166 0.018854 0.042825 0.101725 0.246877 0.596608 1.534716
2026-04-05 0.007467 0.017777 0.041648 0.102290 0.257124 0.644067 1.723459
2026-04-12 0.006920 0.016976 0.040989 0.104017 0.270617 0.702152 1.953210
2026-04-19 0.006104 0.015396 0.038224 0.099974 0.268524 0.719868 2.076073
2026-04-26 0.005341 0.013830 0.035263 0.094934 0.262895 0.727233 2.171361
2026-05-03 0.004779 0.012702 0.033247 0.092100 0.262874 0.750139 2.318287
2026-05-10 0.004263 0.011617 0.031184 0.088795 0.260944 0.767359 2.451997